March Madness 2025: Top Bracket Busters and Betting Upset Picks to Watch
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With March Madness 2025 upon us, let's explore the most promising bracket-busting opportunities and valuable betting options for the NCAA Tournament's first round.
Most Likely Bracket Upsets
#12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis
- Only underdog currently favored by oddsmakers
- Top-3 ranked in Mountain West for both offense and defense
- Strong matchup against Memphis' playing style
#10 Arkansas over #7 Kansas
- 6th best scoring defense in SEC
- Matches up well with Kansas' current roster
#12 UC San Diego over #5 Michigan
- Impressive 30-4 record
- #1 in Big West scoring defense
- #3 in conference scoring
High-Risk, High-Reward Upset Picks
13-Seed: Akron (+750) over Arizona
- Leading MAC offense (84.6 PPG)
- Arizona's defense ranks 13th in conference
- 11.6% implied win probability
14-Seed: Troy (+500) over Kentucky
- Top-3 Sun Belt defense
- Kentucky allows 77.9 PPG (SEC second-worst)
- 16.67% implied win probability
15-Seed: Bryant (+1250) over MSU
- American East scoring leaders (86.4 PPG)
- 7.41% implied win probability
- Strong offensive capability against Big Ten champion
Best First Round Betting Values
New Mexico (+150)
- Mountain West's top offense (81.2 PPG)
- 34.7% from three-point range
- 4th in KenPom tempo rankings
- Facing slumping Marquette (lost 3 of last 4)
Grand Canyon (+450)
- WAC offensive powerhouse (79.9 PPG)
- 18.18% implied win probability
- Favorable matchup against Maryland's pace
Keep monitoring public betting splits as they become available for additional value opportunities.
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