How Weather Impacts Your NFL Betting Strategy

How Weather Impacts Your NFL Betting Strategy

By Marcus Sullivan

January 23, 2025 at 01:31 PM

Weather plays a crucial role in NFL betting as it's the only major sport played outdoors regardless of conditions. Understanding weather impacts can provide valuable betting advantages.

Rain Impact:

  • Creates sloppy playing conditions
  • Reduces game totals by several points
  • Makes passing and running more difficult
  • Benefits underdogs by neutralizing skill advantages
  • Consider betting the under and underdogs against the spread

Wind Impact:

  • Becomes significant at 15+ mph
  • Can severely limit passing games
  • Makes under bets more attractive
  • Teams may abandon passing entirely in strong winds

Snow Impact:

  • Less common but most disruptive
  • Strongly favors under bets
  • Best to avoid betting these games entirely
  • Affects all aspects of play

Player Props Strategy:

  • Target running back overs in poor weather
  • Expect increased rush attempts when passing is limited
  • Avoid passing-related props in bad weather

Indoor Stadium Teams (Weather Not a Factor):

  • Dallas
  • Los Angeles
  • Minnesota
  • Detroit
  • Houston
  • Arizona
  • Las Vegas
  • Indianapolis
  • New Orleans
  • Atlanta

Key Takeaway: Always check weather forecasts before placing NFL bets, as conditions can significantly impact game outcomes and create valuable betting opportunities.

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